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What is the difference between looking back at past voting and making decisions based on future expectations?

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What is the difference between looking back at past voting and making decisions based on future expectations?
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How a politician has voted before vs. how he may vote in the future. This is typically how a challenger will leverage a campaign against a politician bragging of past votes.
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When you look back on your vote and realize you were wrong vs. voting on the information and knowledge you have at the time
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